“You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great – and that’s what a spacefaring civilization is all about.” -Elon Musk
With all that’s happening on planet Earth, why should interplanetary travel be on humanity’s “bucket list”?
I was in high school when we first landed on the Moon and in college when manned exploration of the cosmos effectively came to a halt. After 50 years of relatively modest achievement, only recently has there been serious discussion about humans returning to deep space.
You don’t need to be a science fiction fan or especially knowledgeable about rocketry to appreciate what a revitalized space program means for those of us likely to remain earthbound. Without a doubt, science has always been at the forefront of societal advancement. Although it’s normal to pine for simpler times, few would trade today’s standard of living for the short, difficult lives of our ancestors. The digital economy of the 21st Century wouldn’t be the same without the technological breakthroughs that took us to the Moon.
Why Not Someplace Else?
But why should a dead-looking dust storm of a planet be our next space goal? If Mars wasn’t relatively close to Earth, wouldn’t it make sense to aim for a world with more development potential – especially space tourism? Imagine honeymooning among the rings of Saturn!
In its favor, Mars is[i] more like Earth than any other planet, moon or asteroid in the Solar System. Venus is closer in size to our home planet, but everything else about it is uninviting. At least Mars has a day approximately the same length as Earth’s, 38% of Earth’s gravity, and an average temperature that – while cold – is manageable. More importantly, the atmosphere of Mars is mostly comprised of carbon dioxide which – despite what climate alarmists say – is highly adaptable to life as we know it. Most other planets, if they have an atmosphere at all, are enveloped in poisonous gases. If we compress and warm the CO2 on Mars to earthlike norms, we’d have ideal conditions for growing food-producing plants[ii] – essential if we want to stay there a while.
Impediments to Mars Exploration
Our greatest challenge in reaching and returning from Mars is the length of the trip. Utilizing optimal “low energy” launch windows – when the distance between the two planets is the shortest- a one-way trip to Mars at current rocket speeds still would take nine months.[iii] That’s long but not out of the question given that astronauts have already spent more than a year at the International Space Station (ISS). The real problem is the return trip, which even with minimal stays on the surface of Mars, would take about three years. SpaceX has a more ambitious schedule in mind than does NASA or the other governmental space agencies. Elon Musk believes the outbound trip could be reduced to somewhere between two and four months, but that assumes the use of nuclear-powered spacecraft which currently remains theoretical.
What’s needed to make interplanetary space travel more feasible is an alternative energy source, which ironically is what the Earth needs even if we stay home.
The other great challenge to interplanetary exploration is radiation exposure. Although the space program has dealt with this on relatively short trips to the Moon and in near-Earth orbit, we really don’t know how humans will fare being bombarded by solar radiation for extended periods of time. Even if we develop shielding that minimizes this risk, there’s no guarantee that a manned spaceship going from Earth to Mars and back won’t be struck by a meteorite or something more destructive.
More Unmanned Space Missions Instead?
The success of unmanned Mars rovers, especially latest vehicle Curiosity[iv], has supported claims that manned trips to Mars are no longer necessary. With advances in artificial intelligence and robotics, sending machines instead of people seems like an appealing alternative. However, arguments for colonizing Mars are equally compelling. Just as the Age of Exploration on Earth (the 15th, 16th and17th centuries) led to colonizing undeveloped portions of the globe, sending humans to the Red Planet makes becoming amulti-planetary species far more likely.
So, what’s keeping us from taking this step? To those naysayers who claim the USA has lost its previous ability to tackle big problems, like the Manhattan Project or the Apollo Program, one could argue that today we are better prepared to renew our space program than we were to develop an atomic bomb on the heels of the Great Depression and the eve of World War II. Given the modern advantages of computing power, the ability to fabricate space-age materials and a far greater understanding of astrophysics, it really comes down to a matter of will.
Making the Necessary Level of Commitment
At its peak in the mid-1960s NASA received more than 4% of the federal budget. In 2020, NASA’s $22.6 billion budget accounted for only 0.3% of federal spending. No matter how you order other national priorities, that seems to be an extraordinarily weak commitment to scientific progress. Fortunately, private enterprises like SpaceX, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic are picking up the slack. As demonstrated by SpaceX’s recent rescue of two astronauts stranded on the ISS for nine months, the pursuit of anything we decide to do in space will require some form of public-private partnership.
SpaceX expects to send up to five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the next available Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026. These will effectively be cargo missions to transport the equipment, habitats and other supplies needed for the first crewed mission later this decade. This equipment will include machines to produce methane and oxygen from the nitrogen and carbon dioxide which comprise the atmosphere of Mars.
Musk’s plans for the first crewed Mars mission envision sending 12 people to build and troubleshoot the propellant plant necessary for return trips as well as establishing a rudimentary base for future visits. After the first crewed mission possibly in 2029, priority would be given to making use of local resources on Mars to establish a self-sustaining colony by 2050. The ultimate goal would be to colonize the Red Planet with a million people using up to 1,000 Starships each transporting hundreds of people during the Earth-Mars launch windows every 26 months.
Imagining the Future
For anyone born after the dawn of the Space Age, which includes most people now alive, plans like these shouldn’t seem far-fetched. For decades popular culture has embraced idealistic views of the future that have in many instances come true. Raised on a steady diet of Star Trek and similar space-themed movies, video games and other fare, why shouldn’t today’s younger generations embrace such a grandiose idea?
French writer Victor Hugo once said:
“The future has many names. For the weak, it means the unattainable. For the fearful, it means the unknown. For the courageous, it means opportunity.”
Even though life is understood through the lens of looking backwards, it can only be lived by looking forward. A future conceived in fearless imagination empowers not only dreamers like Elon Musk but also those who simply want better lives for themselves and their offspring.
[i] More accurately, Mars and Earth appear to have been quite similar in the distant past. Recent unmanned missions to Mars have shown that in all likelihood the Red Planet once had flowing water and an atmosphere comparable to ours.
[ii] More than the potatoes Matt Damon was forced to eat in the 2015 movie The Martian.
[iii] The distance between Earth and Mars varies from 34.6 to 64 million miles depending on the year. Celestial mechanics make it impossible to make both parts of a round-trip less than one year.
[iv] Launched from Earth in 2011, the car-sized mobile laboratory has been operating on the surface of Mars for over 12 years providing useful scientific data. However, Curiosity’s power system is expected to fail by the end of 2026 bringing this mission to a close.
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