by Peter Pavarini
The mainstream media’s recent portrayal of President Trump’s Mount Rushmore speech[i] as “dark and divisive”[ii] poignantly illustrates the depth of America’s division and despair.[iii] No longer is the disconnect between reporting and reality just a matter of political perspective. Rather, what we are now witnessing is a strain of political madness that could possibly lead to another civil war.
In prior blogs, I’ve been critical of those who rely heavily on hyperbole to make their points. Therefore, I am hesitant to conclude that the events of the past several months are a prelude to outright civil war. However, it is very hard to ignore the gravity of our current situation.
Civil War Previously a Taboo Subject. Both conservative and liberal media outlets are routinely publishing articles about the risk of a Second Civil War[iv]. Shortly after the release of the Mueller Report last year, former U.S. Attorney Joseph diGenova (someone my wife and I had the privilege of doing community theatre with years ago) said in a podcast, “We are in a civil war, so the suggestion that there’s ever going to be a civil discourse in the country for the foreseeable future is over…”[v] Following months of government-imposed lock-downs and weeks of violent protests, what previously had been considered a taboo subject is now tossed around pretty much as a given.
When the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service conducted a public opinion poll last year, participants concluded that the US was already two-thirds of the way to internecine bloodshed.[vi] Writer Adam Raymond explained the poll results:
“For conservatives, it’s the notion that Democrats will stop at nothing to get rid of Mr. Trump and will marshal the forces of the Deep State to right the wrongs of the 2016 election. For liberals, it is a warning: Don’t push churchgoing, gun-loving conservatives too far, or there’ll be dangerous consequences.”[vii]
More than nine months later, one has to wonder – how much further down the road to another Fort Sumter are we?
What Divides Americans. For years, well before Trump’s election, the Right has taken a hands-off approach to centralized government – generally wanting fewer regulations and a smaller public sector. The right to live your own life without hurting others has been the central tenet of this conservatism. In contrast, the Left has enthusiastically endorsed managing the lives of 330 million Americans in exchange for the promise of free college, free health care, and a host of other public benefits. Some argue this is only a continuation of the century-old clash between capitalism and socialism, but I’m beginning to believe it’s more divisive than dueling ideologies.
Those screaming the loudest do not appear to be motivated by well-reasoned philosophies. If they were, they wouldn’t be protesting racism by tearing down statues of abolitionists and other Americans who risked their lives to advance equality and social justice. The most passionate voices appear to be fueled by something more akin to tribalism, if not pure hatred. They see their fellow Americans as the enemy -one they need to destroy.
When Extremism Becomes Mainstream. What was once dismissed as the folly of extremists has now taken hold in the campaigns of major political candidates[viii], corporate board rooms[ix] and, of course, institutions of higher education.[x] Riots are no longer triggered just by police shootings deemed to be unjustified, as in the case of George Floyd.[xi] News anchors on major network television are heard to say “we all need to take a class” from a radical Black Lives Matter activist who justified looting, rioting and property destruction in a profane YouTube posting viewed by more than 2 million people and shared by the likes of Lebron James and Madonna.[xii]
Where does this vitriol come from? Some writers[xiii] point to a political madness inculcated by one’s education and experience. If you have been conditioned to see the world through a lens of self-pity, mistrust, victimization and injustice, it’s hard to understand why anyone would want to preserve and protect a constitutional republic that has endured for 244 years. If, on the other hand, you’ve never felt particularly privileged by being the member of an elite, have worked long and hard to rise from the circumstances of your birth, and ultimately believe it’s up to you to improve your life, then you probably have felt threatened by the hostility of today’s cancel culture.
Both extremes now see losing the November 2020 Election as the “end of America”. Such fear provides the ideal conditions for chaos. Depending on your view of the candidates and the parties, you are either in someone’s “in-group” or “out-group”. At least four states (California, Texas, Colorado and Maryland) currently have secession movements underway. Other states will certainly follow as they did after the Election of 1860.
Resurgence of Urban Flight. Whether because of the COVID pandemic, urban violence, the wholesale release of prisoners or the threatened dismantling of law enforcement agencies in big cities, as of late, there has been an unprecedented surge of people moving from metropolitan areas to rural and less populated states.[xiv] I just returned from visiting my son in Montana, and he reported to me a spike in real estate prices in just a matter of weeks. The same is true of western North Carolina where I spend my summers. Most of this migration is not being driven by ideology. People are just fed up with the hostility of identity politics, cancel culture, the risk of physical violence and unfounded restrictions on their daily lives. Is this exodus a blip or the beginning of a trend that will reshape America? It’s too soon to know, but as the first half of 2020 demonstrated, Americans are nothing if not practical. They will master Zoom conference calls, home schooling and on-line food delivery when forced to adapt to a rapidly changing world.
Some say the American population is demographically too old to have another civil war.[xv] That may be true in countries that have experienced civil conflict in the past century; however, as one of the longest-standing governments operating under more or less the same constitution, is the US at greater or lesser risk of upheaval than those more youthful societies? Does the existence of over 300 million firearms in the hands of 41% of all households increase or diminish the likelihood of violence if the proverbial match is struck? During the American Civil War (1861-1865), the death rate of the total population was about 2%. In 21st Century terms, that would equate to 6 million fatalities plus an incomprehensible toll in injuries, suffering and destruction.
Why Civil Wars Happen – Or Don’t. Civil wars usually take place after mass protest movements fail to bring about substantive change and neither side sees any hope for reconciliation. After spending a few hours on social media websites, it’s not hard to feel we are already at that point. On the other hand, the Black Lives Matter protests of recent weeks could fail the same way the Occupy Wall Street movement failed several years ago. Without coherent leadership and concrete, immediately implementable goals, a coalition of diverse interest groups like those seen in the streets since May are unlikely to grow stronger over time. Recent polling suggests that the BLM protests have actually been a detriment to Joe Biden’s chances this November[xvi] and, in the end, the majority of Americans will cast their votes based upon more conventional issues such as the economy, health care and national security.
The wild card in all this would be a false flag operation such as the burning of the Reichstag in 1933 or an October surprise greater than the pandemic, economic recession and protests that have already beset us this year. Apart from such a Black Swan event, the American spirit which has glued us together for nearly two and half centuries and the exceptionalism that still drives millions to immigrate here are likely to keep the Great American Experiment going a while longer.
[i] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-2020-salute-america/
[ii] “Trump Uses Mount Rushmore Speech to Deliver Divisive Culture War Message”, New York Times, July 3, 2020.
[iii] “It is a crazy time, indeed, when the mainstream media can portray a speech designed to celebrate America as dark and divisive,” DePauw University professor and media critic Jeffrey McCall told Fox News.https://www.foxnews.com/media/media-coverage-trump-mount-rushmore-speech-dark-divisive
[iv] See references in Wikipedia’s “Second American Civil War”.
[v] Steven Greenhut, “Let’s Knock Off the Blythe Talk of a Coming Civil War”, Orange County Register, June 5, 2020.
[vi] http://politics.georgetown.edu/press-releases/civility-press-release-oct-2019/
[vii] New York Magazine Politics, October 24, 2019.
[viii] Project Veritas captured a Bernie Sanders campaign staffer saying on video that he was ready to “get armed” for the “revolution” and Republicans should expect to be sent to “reeducation camps”. Another field organizer was recorded as saying “I’m ready to start tearing bricks up and start fighting. I’ll straight up get armed. I want to learn how to shoot and go train… I’m telling you. Guillotine the rich.” http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/21/guillotine-rich-project-veritas-exposes-another-ra/
[ix] Tom Price, “Activists in the Boardroom”, Foundation for Public Affairs (2006).
[x] Christopher Damien, “As Colleges Polarize Politically, Extremists Are Getting Younger”, Youth Today, May 7, 2018.
[xi] Rick Moran, “Utah Governor Declares State of Emergency Due to ‘Civil Unrest’, PJ Media, July 10, 2020
[xii] Gayle King, CBS New This Morning, July 10, 2020. Another Black Lives Matter video reportedly featured instruction on how to break a car window, cut the driver’s seat belt and remove that person from the car.
[xiii] Lyle H. Rossiter, Jr., M.D., “The Liberal Mind: The Psychological Causes of Political Madness” (2005); Jesse Singal, “How Social Science Might Be Misunderstanding Conservatives”, New York Magazine, July 15, 2018.
[xv] H. Urdal, “A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence,” International Studies Quarterly 50:607-629 (2006); H. Hegre, J. Karlsen, H.M. Nygard, H. Strand, and H. Urdal, “Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050”, International Studies Quarterly 57(2):250-270 (2013).
[xvi] Debra Heine, “Black Lives Matters Movement Hurting Dems With Voters”, American Greatness, July 11, 2020.
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