By Peter Pavarini

Understanding the Mid-Term Elections of 2022

During the final week of the 1980 presidential campaign between Democrat President Jimmy Carter and Republican nominee Ronald Reagan, the challenger posed what has become the perennial question in American politics:

                        “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”

A few days later, the voters answered Reagan with a resounding “no” and gave him a huge popular vote and Electoral College victory.

Notwithstanding comparisons to Jimmy Carter’s notoriously bad presidency, widespread predictions of a “Red Wave” in this year’s mid-term elections failed to materialize. President Biden’s low approval ratings and dismal performance in office were overcome by a variety of forces apparently inapplicable in 1980. What has changed?

Simply put, America is no longer the same country. When Reagan asked his question, many of those alive at that time had suffered through the Great Depression and World War II. Although New Deal and Great Society programs had already provided our citizenry an economic “safety net”, virtually everyone still thought the American Dream was something to be earned. When the average American family experienced hardship 42 years ago, they expected a hand up, not a handout.

The Expectations of Today’s Public

Two generations later, public expectations have been dramatically altered by an array of government programs, including COVID relief payments, extended unemployment benefits, earned income tax credits, expanded Medicaid coverage, promises of school loan forgiveness, and, in some jurisdictions, guaranteed minimum monthly income. The youngest among us have only known the largesse of a prosperous society that didn’t require very much from them in return.

During this year’s campaign, Republicans reflexively thought everyone would see how much better off they fared in Donald Trump’s growing economy than under Biden’s prosperity-killing Green New Deal Socialism. However, as we just learned, that assumption was at least partly wrong. At least half of the electorate didn’t notice much of a difference between the two economies, and even if they did, other factors seemed more compelling to them.

Diametrically Opposed Perspectives on the Role of Government

All the chatter during the past few days about the need for election reform, better candidate selection and party leadership has obscured the real issue. No matter who tops the tickets of the two major parties in 2024, we will still be faced with the diametrically opposed perspectives of the Left and the Right. There appears to be an unbridgeable gulf between what half of the country expects the government to provide and what the other half traditionally believes was promised by our founding documents.

Since 2014, roughly half of the U.S. population has been the beneficiaries of some form of government assistance. [i] With the recent influx of millions of illegal border-crossers, this percentage has only grown and shows no signs of stopping.

Based upon Alexander Tytler’s life cycle of a republic[ii], the U.S. has already passed through the stages of spiritual faith, courage, liberty and abundance. As we prospered in recent years, pride replaced humility and a sense of entitlement overtook a sense of gratitude. We are now, according to some[iii], in the dependance phase heading rapidly toward bondage.

More Than a Political Struggle

Even before last week’s elections, the bitterness and resentment felt by most Americans should have been seen as indicative of something more than a political struggle. In a cultural war, people naturally feel cheated when they lose things they’ve come to expect or rely upon. That doesn’t justify blaming others who have different political viewpoints, much less those who happen to belong to another demographic group. However, strong sentiments like these have been common throughout history.

To be blunt, life doesn’t owe us a thing. Just being alive, even in a highly developed nation like ours, doesn’t impose an obligation on others to satisfy our every need or want. When we speak of fundamental rights – whether based in the U.S. Constitution or among the unalienable rights enshrined by the Declaration of Independence – we’re not talking about what the government is obligated to provide to us. Rather, they are the inherent rights endowed to us by our Creator which exist outside of any governmental system. In short, they are the freedoms most likely to be abridged by the state in exchange for the resources we all need to survive. And therein lies the bondage Tytler spoke of.

Nurturing a Spirit of Gratitude

As frustrating as it may be, life is often hard. Good fortune is fickle by nature. We can and should enjoy the good times while they last, but not tear ourselves up when they end. Rather than being resentful in the face of disappointment, we ought to cultivate the kind of optimism that causes us to improve the human condition. Most importantly, we should nurture a spirit of gratitude for what we still have even after we’ve suffered loss.

As we approach the Thanksgiving holiday, I am reminded of Ohio’s state motto: “with God, all things are possible.” It’s the only state motto taken directly from the Bible. [iv] I am amazed as well as thankful that, even in the Era of Wokeness, it has yet to be repealed or replaced by those offended by any mention of God.

In his 1858 speech to the Republican State Convention in Springfield, Illinois, Abraham Lincoln also used Scripture to make his point:

“A house divided against itself cannot stand… I do not expect the Union to be dissolved – I do not expect the house to fall – but I do expect it will cease to be divided.  It will become all one thing or all the other.”

Lincoln went on to lose his campaign for the U.S. Senate that year, but he returned to public life as President of the United States in 1861 to shepherd the nation through a bloody civil war and the perpetuation of our Republic against all odds.

When all is said and done, I am thankful knowing countless Americans are praying every day for the restoration of unity in our nation. Because with God, all things are possible.

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[i] Merrill Matthews, “We’ve Crossed the Tipping Point: Most Americans Now Receive Government Benefits”, Forbes, July 2, 2014.

[ii] Two centuries ago, a somewhat obscure Scotsman named Alexander Tytler made this profound observation: “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy”.

[iii] Tom McAllister, The Unpopular Cure for our Electoral Woes”, The American Thinker, November 16, 2022.

[iv] Matthew 19:26.