By Peter Pavarini
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” – Yogi Berra[i]
In 1970, the year the Beatles disbanded, futurist Alvin Toffler published his best-selling book Future Shock[ii]. More than a half-century later, Toffler’s commentary on the accelerated pace of technological and social change is as thought-provoking today as it was when the Information Era was still in its infancy.
Toffler posited that the transition from an industrial society to a post-industrial world would result in “shattering stress and disorientation” – or what he called “Future Shock”. Familiar things would quickly become outmoded and replaced by newer versions, leaving the user feeling helpless to keep up. Among other expressions, his book popularized the term “information overload” which remains in common use today.
Although Toffler was right about the trajectory of modern life, his predictions about the future now seem somewhat generalized. For example, he didn’t fully appreciate the impact semiconductor chips and artificial intelligence would have on day-to-day living. Instead, his focus was on interpersonal relationships, specifically how human behavior would change because of such advances.
The Future Isn’t Set in Stone
Among his many hilarious malapropisms, Yogi Berra – the legendary New York Yankees catcher- once said: “The future ain’t what it used to be.” We may laugh at the simplicity of his statement, but Yogi was right. Nothing becomes obsolete faster than a prediction that turns out to be wrong.
Many say the near future is harder to predict than the far future. Yet, the classic science fiction written by H.G. Wells in the late 19th century[iii] has held up rather well in contrast to some of today’s sci fi which seems to have a shelf-life of months rather than years.
Outside the literary world, consider just how wrong the predictions of the highly esteemed World Economic Forum have been regarding the year 2025. Just nine years ago, the WEF issued its “Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact Report”.[iv] The study was based upon a survey of 800 technology company executives. Of the ten things these experts said would happen by 2025, only one has any chance of coming true.[v]
Thinking About Today
Humans aren’t the only sentient creatures that think about the future. Every dog owner knows what opening a can of dog food or reaching for a leash means to the dog. However, humans are unique in the way they consider the alternative ways the future might unfold.
Anticipating the future begins with what someone already thinks about today. Not surprisingly, those who are preoccupied with their present-day struggles tend to be more apprehensive about the future. On the other hand, those who are generally satisfied with their current situation and have a positive image of themselves are much more likely to see the future optimistically. In general, a positive predisposition results in making more prudent decisions, setting goals that are more likely to be achieved, and having relationships that are more amicable and generous.[vi]
Who Gets to Predict What the Future Will Look Like?
Published commentary about the near future casts a decidedly pessimistic outlook.[vii] The mainstream media’s obsession with issues such as climate change, water scarcity and refugee migration, is more about shaping public opinion than providing the public with objective information about these problems. Similarly, techno-thrillers set in the not-too-distant future are often considered the “most terrifying” genre of science fiction because they appear so realistic. Even “world building” games[viii] are often premised upon a dystopian view of the next several decades.
But why shouldn’t the dreams of our forefathers also influence our thinking about the future? Of the 117 billion people who have ever lived, approximately 109 billion of them are now dead[ix]. Why should those still alive today have the exclusive right to determine what the future of humanity looks like? After all, our ancestors deserve some credit for their contributions to what we call “civilization”. Think of all we’ve learned from them, all the mistakes they made which we can avoid repeating, the infrastructure they built which we take for granted, and all the cultural, scientific and other achievements which make us “modern”. As Sir Isaac Newton said, “If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.”
Granted, a global catastrophe like a nuclear war or the earth being struck by an asteroid would be horrific and, even if we were to survive, would likely set back humanity hundreds of years. However, as things now stand, most children born today can expect to see the 22nd century. And with continued advances in medicine, their children could possibly live into the 23rd century. Just in the past 200 years, we’ve seen extreme poverty levels plummet worldwide, and literacy rates greatly improve. Some form of democracy now governs more than half the world’s population when only 1% enjoyed that privilege in 1824. Two centuries ago, 43% of all children died before they reached age 5. Today, only 4% fail to outlive their infancy. If you need more encouragement, I highly recommend reading Matt Ridley’s The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves[x].
Nothing has done more to lift humanity from the scourge of poverty, disease and malnutrition than the development of free markets. Although all economic progress has some downsides (e.g., income inequality, damage to the environment, periodic market failures), over time the net benefits of capitalism have always outweighed its deficits. Nonetheless, despite its proven history of failure, socialism continues to rear its ugly head, especially among the young.
A Work in Progress
This summer, I began work on a new novel – my first serious attempt at science fiction. Although it’s too early to reveal much about its plot and characters, I’m quite certain the story will take place on earth in the near future. I purposely chose this setting because I want to write about people who are dealing with situations not too different than those of today. They may be more advanced than us in some ways, but they will have values and expectations much like ours. I also expect my characters to be challenged by problems which exist today and could be resolved – but for some reason weren’t.
Every generation claims to be living in “uncertain times”. Only the passage of time will determine just how uncertain the early 21st century has been. Before the turn of the millennium, the American people enjoyed an unprecedented level of achievement. Because of that, the 20th century was dubbed the “American Century”. Today, the path to the future seems to change direction every day. To borrow from a popular meme, who had the political events of the past two months on their bingo card?
Approaching the End of the Fourth Turning
I agree with historian/demographer Neil Howe that the world is fast approaching the climax of what he calls “The Fourth Turning”.[xi] Although we don’t know for sure when that will be, all the ingredients for this phase in Howe’s cycle of history are in place. Everything that’s happening around us – the polarization, the destruction of the middle class, the growing threats of civil conflict and global war – Howe says will culminate by the early 2030s. Unless we stay anchored to the principles of an enduring moral code, many of us will feel like strangers in our own land.
Notwithstanding the dangers of this tumultuous time, I believe America’s next golden age can spring from our uncertainty about the future. There are growing signs of unification around our nation’s enduring values – individual freedom, personal responsibility, human dignity, and especially the specific rights enshrined in our Constitution. The “Great Reset” may end up looking nothing like the dismal socio-economic model proposed by the World Economic Forum. Instead, a more populist, diverse and technologically advanced society can and will vanquish what White House speechwriter William Safire once called the “nattering nabobs of negativism”.
[i] Also attributed to physicist Niels Bohr.
[ii] Random House (1970).
[iii] E.g., The Time Machine (1895), The Invisible Man (1897), War of the Worlds (1898).
[iv] See WEForum.org, September 9, 2015.
[v] (1) 10% of people would be wearing clothes connected to the internet, (2) the US would have its first robotic pharmacist, (3) the first 3D-printed car would be in production, (4) 5% of consumer products would be manufactured by 3D printing, (5) 90% of the population would have regular access to the internet, (6) 10% of the cars on US roads would be driverless, (7) the first 3D-printed liver would be transplanted into a human, (8) over 50% of internet traffic to homes would be for household appliances, (9) the US would have the first city of 50,000 people or more with no traffic lights, (10) the first AI machine would be elected to a corporate board of directors. The only WEF prediction with any chance of being realized is #5. Recently, Forbes reported there are now 5.35 million internet users worldwide – approximately 66% of the global population.
[vi] Summer Allen, “How Thinking About the Future Makes Life More Meaningful”, https://greatergood.berkley.edu May 1, 2019.
[vii] “The Weirdness is Coming: A glimpse of the near future as seen through the recent past,” New York Magazine Intelligencer, November 13, 2019. See also “Experts say the New Normal in 2025 will be far more tech-driven, presenting more big challenges”, Pew Research Report, February 18, 2021.
[viii] E.g., Fallout Shelter
[ix ] See Max Roser, “Humanity Today and Humanity’s Past”, www.ourworldindata.org.
[x ] Harper Perennial, reprint edition June 7, 2011.
[xi ] Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning is Here, Simon & Schuster (2023).
Be First to Comment